The rise of the New Old Threats?

Last Wednesday, I went to speak at a seminar on maritime security organised by the Institut des hautes études de défense national (French Institute for Higher Defence Studies or IHEDN) and the new Swedish Presidency of the European Union. I was invited to present my work on the renewed geopolitical competition between the Chinese, Indians, Americans, Japanese, Australians and South Koreans in the Suez-Shanghai zone and its possible implications for the European Union.

Both the Swedish Presidency and the IHEDN should be congratulated for placing renewed emphasis on maritime security during a time when many Europeans are seemingly blinded to the sea. Freedom of manoeuvre on the world’s oceans is absolutely critical to European security, and particularly to European economic prosperity given that over ninety percent of imports and exports reach us and leave us by the sea. And many of these goods flow along the main European-Asian shipping route, through the notorious Red Sea and Indian Ocean.

As a related issue, the European Union’s first naval operation, to repress pirate activity in the Gulf of Aden, has also drawn renewed focus on maritime security—as one of the speakers, Commander Snowy Lintern, the current Liaison Officer to the European Union operation off Somalia’s coast, so aptly pointed out during his presentation to the conference last Tuesday.

As Commander Lintern showed, the European Union has become the leading power in the multinational task force to reduce pirate activity and provide a more secure waterway along the world’s premier sea route. Not only does the European Union now have more warships in the Gulf of Aden than any other power, but it also forms the nexus of an expanding anti-piracy operation involving the United States, India, Japan, China and Russia, as well as a few other smaller countries. As a consequence of these efforts, pirate attacks have dropped. In 2008, one in three pirate attacks was successful; by Spring 2009 only one in six succeeded; and today, only one in ten prevails. This is clearly a significant reduction and the European Union has proved itself as a credible maritime and naval power, while Britain—which provides the operational headquarters for the mission—has learnt that it can achieve far more militarily with its European partners than alone.


Me speaking to the Maritime Security Seminar in Brussels
But what does the return of piracy and the emerging geopolitical struggle in Eurasia represent? In short, I think it may suggest that we are about to enter an age of rising discord and tension, where the so-called ‘new threats’ like failed states and Islamist terrorism become the Old New Threats. Instead, what we may now be witnessing is the rise of the New Old Threats, such as inter-state conflict (think of the Russian invasion of Georgia last year, or the naval arms race in Asia) and piracy on the high seas. Unfortunately, if the world is about to move into a more volatile era—say, akin to the period 1890-1914—Europeans are woefully unprepared. Our security doctrines even state that conflicts and struggles between states are almost a thing of the past—or at least unlikely for at least another fifteen years! But who can say? Who knows what the future holds?

After all, who foresaw World War I in 1899; World War II in 1924; the Vietnam War in 1944; the Falklands War in 1967; the Gulf War in 1976 or the Afghanistan War in 1986, and so on? The answer: very few, if anyone. And even if someone did suspect that troubles were resting over the horizon—as, say, Bismarck did in the 1890s—it was more of an educated guess than an accurate prediction or a prophesy. So where am I going with all this? In short, I am trying to point out that Europeans still need to retain strong armed forces (particularly naval forces), which are able to fight conventional foes, ‘old-fashioned’ challenges, and/or the New Old Threats. For, in comparison to terrorism and failed states, the more conventional challenges would damage the European order in a way that the so-called ‘new threats’ never could...